NEIL: THANK YOU, JACKIE. AL AN LEN QUESTRUM HERE, THE GUY YOU KNOW AS BRAINIAC BEHIND JCPENNEY. EXPERT ON THIS HAPPY TO HAVE YOU ALAN.>>HI, NEIL. NEIL: GOOD TO SEE YOU, AT LEAST THE RETAIL FEDERATION PUT OUT NUMBERS LAST WEEK THAT SHOWED THEY THINK IT WILL BE A VERY STRONG CHRISTMAS. STRONG HOLIDAY SEASON IN GENERAL. UP TO FOUR 1/2 TO 5% OAF LAST YEARS SALES. DO YOU BUY THAT?>>I THINK IT WILL BE A GOOD ECONOMY FOR THE CONSUMER AND FOR RETAILERS BECAUSE WE DO HAVE A VERY STRONG ECONOMY RELATIVE TO THE REST OF THE WORLD AND EVEN RELATIVE TO OURSELVES. WE ARE FAR BETTER TODAY THAN WE WERE THREE YEARS AGO. YOU HAVE TO LOOK BACK, SAY A LOT OF THAT IS THE RESULT OF THE PRESIDENT’S TAX CUTS AND TAX REVISIONS THAT HE HAS DONE TWO YEARS AGO. THAT HAD HUGE EFFECT ON PEOPLE BEING HIRED ON THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE. I THINK TODAY PEOPLE HAVE A LOT MORE MONEY THAN THEY HAVE TWO YEARS AGO. SO THEY WILL BE BUYING. NOW INCREASES COMING THROUGH IN THE TARIFFS. MOST OF THOSE HAVE NOT BEEN SEEN IN THE STORES AS OF YET. BUT THEY CERTAINLY WILL BE SEEN AS YOU START INTO THE NEXT YEAR. BUT MOST OF THE PRODUCTS THAT THE STORES ARE GOING TO BE SELLING FOR THIS CHRISTMAS ARE, THEY ALREADY HAVE IT IN THEIR ASSORTMENTS THAT WILL BE LESS AFFECTED. WHAT THE PROBLEM GETS INTO IS, IS THE NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF THE TRADE. THIS ECONOMY WOULD BE FAR GREATER THAN IT IS CURRENTLY RUNNING IF WE DID NOT HAVE THE THING GOING ON HANGING OVER OUR HEAD. I HOPE THIS WEEK, SOME KIND OF A RESOLVE COMES OUT OF IT. QUITE FRANKLY, FOR THE PRESIDENT’S CASE, IF WE ARE INTO A RECESSION NEXT YEAR WHICH WE COULD WELL BE IF WE CAN’T SOLVE THE TRADE ISSUE, THAT WOULD MAKE IT VERY DIFFICULT GOING INTO THE ELECTION. FROM HIS POINT OF VIEW, FROM THE CONSUMER POINT OF VIEW, FROM THE RETAILER POINT OF VIEW, I HOPE WE MAKE SOME PROGRESS ON IT. IF NOT A TOTAL SOLUTION. AT LEAST SOME PROGRESS WE CAN ALWAYS COME BACK LATER ON AFTER THE ELECTION. THAT IS — NEIL: WHAT YOU’RE SAYING THE TARIFFS SCHEDULED TO GO ON OCTOBER 15th, THEY ALREADY DO, THEY ARE BAKED INTO THE CAKE? PEOPLE DOING HOLIDAY SHOPPING WILL NOT FEEL THAT OR WHAT?>>I THINK THE TERRORIST THAT ARE GOING IN IN OCTOBER. PRODUCTS AFFECTED WILL BE OCTOBER PURCHASES AFTER THAT, THAT IS FROM THE RETAILER BUYING FROM THE MANUFACTURER. THE CUSTOMER WILL PROBABLY NOT BE THAT AFFECTED BY THE TARIFFS THAT ARE ALREADY TAKEN, THAT WILL BE TAKEN IN OCTOBER. NEIL: SO A LOT OF RETAIL, JUST TO BE CLEAR, ALLEN, A LOT OF RETAILERS, AMERICAN DISTRIBUTORS, WHO SUCKED UP A LOT OF THAT, TO TRY TO AVOID PASSING BEYOND YOU KNOW, TO THEIR CUSTOMERS, OF COURSE THEY BENEFITED FROM THAT, CHINA DEVALUED ITS CURRENCY TO CHEAPEN THE BLOW FOR THEM.>>RIGHT. NEIL: THAT WOULD END EVENTUALLY, RIGHT?>>THAT WILL END. THE BIGGEST EFFECT WILL BE NEXT YEAR. NEIL: RIGHT.>>I DO NOT THINK IT WILL HAVE THAT BIG OF AN EFFECT NEXT YEAR. THE CUSTOMER REALLY IS, DESPITE ALL THE NEGATIVE VIBRATIONS AROUND HER. THE CUSTOMER REALLY FEELS A LOT BETTER ABOUT HERSELF AND HER FAMILY’S POSITION IN TERMS OF THEIR INCOME. SHE SHOULD BE BECAUSE WE HAVE GREAT EMPLOYMENT IN THIS COUNTRY. SO I THINK THAT WE WILL HAVE A GOOD CHRISTMAS. WHETHER IT WILL BE FIVE 1/2 OR 4% I CAN’T PREDICT, BUT CERTAINLY WILL BE POSITIVE OR BETTER THAN LAST YEAR. IF WE CAN SOLVE THE PROBLEM I THINK WE’LL HAVE A GOOD YEAR NEXT YEAR. IF WE CAN’T, THAT IS A QUESTION. THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF WORK DONE ON THIS THE PROBLEM IS, IF THEY DON’T SOLVE IT FROM THE CHINESE POINT OF VIEW, AMERICAN RETAILERS AND MANUFACTURERS ARE MOVING MANUFACTURING OFF OF CHINA INTO OTHER COUNTRIES. VIETNAM BEING ONE OF THEM, BUT THEY WILL BE MOVING A LOT MORE. IT BEHOOVES BOTH OF US TO COME TO RESOLUTION BECAUSE IT WILL HELP THE CHINESE AS WELL AS IT WILL HELP THE UNITED STATES. NEIL: YOU THINK COOLER HEADS WILL PREVAIL AN RECOGNIZE IN THEIR MUTUAL INTERESTS NOT TO BE –>>POLITICS. THAT DOESN’T USUALLY WORK WITH

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51 thoughts on “US could be in a recession next year if trade issue lingers: Questrom”

  1. This is fake pressure to get Trump to submit to China. Fk China, we don’t need there junk. Let’s build up the Western Hemisphere.

  2. Keep saying recession and people stop buying. People stop buying and companies stop producing. Co stop producing and tax revenue goes down AND YOU HAVE RECESSION JUST LIKE THE DEMS WANT! CONGRATS!

  3. Could be? Is that a prediction? Who is assuring could be?

    Make sales of carrot peeler's. And fully automatic. Very time passing.

  4. CHICKEN LITTLE NEWS…… Recession is natural… These are never trumpers waiting for things to slow. This trade is is nothing. We have many thirdwould countries willing to take china's place. And more than willing to be fair and not be dishonorable and a piece of feces. A lot of the nations just want a better living standard. Not to replace Americas as the head superpower… BRING BACK PEACE. Start the Renaissance . Bring back the breakaway civilization and meld them to those wanting to choose to be human beings and not human animals

  5. You keep putting out fake news like you doing Neal and Fox News might be having a recession when people quit watching you I don't watch you at all haha you or shepherd

  6. We have to do what is right to ensure that The Chinese Government no Longer has access to our RND.

    If it means an economic Reset? So be it.

  7. What ever it takes to achieve fair trade. In the long term we will be far better with fair trade. The globalists have cost of far too much for far too long.

  8. And the the United States May not exist if the Demonocrats win either. I guess rather stating false narratives like everyone in 5he MSM, I will just have to wait and see what happens. No sense in getting all the people upset because someone wants to push an agenda instead of facts!

  9. The media scares investors into pulling out therefore creating Recessions. The media, not the market, creates Recessions, at least for the past few decades. These media people have tried and FAILED to engineer a Recession and outright Stock Market Crash since 2016! Anyone dumb enough to trust Cavuto's propaganda is inviting their own, personal Recession!

  10. And, it could also be in a Recession next year if they trade issue does not linger. Some folks will blame it on trade automatically simply in order to protect their own interests.

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