When we talk about a recession, we’re usually
talking about the state of the American economy in total in some kind of broader sense and
we’re not there yet. I mean today we, we do not appear to be in
a recession. There are concerning signs that we’ve talked
about, but it would not be accurate or at least defensible broadly to say that the country
is in a recession right now. But there are parts of the country that are
in a recession and at this point that is really impossible to deny. And the recession that exists already in parts
of the country are very highly connected to Donald Trump’s trade war with China. The also are connected to things like automation,
uh, and some other things that are bigger than Trump. But Donald Trump’s trade policy is certainly
precipitating this. So let’s first start with what is the definition
of a recession? A recession is a period of temporary economic
decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified
by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters. You need only look at places like Wisconsin
and Pennsylvania and a number of other states, specifically in the industries of agriculture
and manufacturing to realize that we have a regionalized, agricultural and manufacturing
recession right now. It’s happening right now. This is not maybe at some point in the future. Okay. You have farms and farmers themselves experiencing
drastically reduced trade and industrial activity to borrow the terminology from the definition
of recession because of a fall in their production as a result of the trade war. You then have the sequential effects of related
drops in industrial activity at companies that make farm equipment. Companies like Kune and John Deere Kune recently
furloughed hundreds of employees for two weeks because they have slowed down production as
a result of farmers being hit by the trade war. The trade war by shrinking farm trade is shrinking. The economic activity of companies like Kune
and others, so they are forced to cut production. And when you zoom out a little bit and you
look at the index of manufacturing activity, you see a contraction last month for the first
time in three years. When you look at manufacturing jobs, the number
of new manufacturing jobs has dropped from 170,000 added at this time last year to just
44,000 barely enough to keep up with population growth. This is stagnation in 22 states. The number of people working in factories
has fallen in the first seven months of 2019 according to the economic innovation group. So are we in a recession right now as a country? We cannot say that at this point in time. At some point soon, we may be able to say
it is agriculture and manufacturing and a recession in a lot of the country. Yes it is. It is a regionalized recession that’s happening
right now and you can actually go further. There are places where the 2008 recession
never really ended. The economically ravaged places in the Midwest
and elsewhere that simply never fully recovered and are now already getting hit again. Now, in fairness, you know, I, one of the
things that I try to be consistent about is whether it’s a democrat or a Republican in
the White House, I assign blame only to the extent that it is warranted and when there
are things that are bigger than who’s in the Oval Office, I tell you part of what’s going
on is bigger than Trump. It’s bigger than Trump’s policy. There was a, a something called creative destruction. This is a mechanism in the business cycle. This was, uh, the, the term creative destruction
I believe comes from marks, but it meant something else. Joseph Schumpeter, an Austrian economists
know left winger by any means. Uh, sort of took the term and described it
as an inherent feature of capitalist economies, which is the constant revolutionizing of the
structure of the economy by changing the dynamics of it and there is some degree of that. The United States is experiencing that there’s
a move away from manufacturing in general. There’s a move towards tech and information
and other sectors. Parts of what we’re seeing right now in manufacturing
could be certainly influenced by creative destruction by automation. That is not Donald Trump’s unique fault either,
but the bottom falling out this quickly specifically because of Trump policy at a faster rate than
it would otherwise and nothing is being done. Big picture other than throwing some subsidies
at some farmers that is Trump. Trump’s trade war according to an estimate
from Moody’s has killed 300,000 to jobs in total. So this is not good. This is of course, potentially the, the, the,
the early indicator of things to come, not in a recession right now broadly, but we don’t
have to hypothesize about the future because we have a regionalized manufacturing and agricultural
recession happening right now. Go and look at the really good interviews
with farmers and manufacturing companies, farm equipment, manufacturing companies that
media outlets like NPR have done. It’s really good work. It’s happening right now, and to pretend it
isn’t is a disservice to so many workers that are already being affected by what’s taking
place. We will be talking more about this on our
Instagram page at David Pakman show, which I encourage you to follow. You can also follow me while you were there
at David dot pack. We will take, okay, very quick rate and be back with a lot
more right after this

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31 thoughts on “Recession Has Started in Parts of USA”

  1. Wine grapes in California are experiencing a slowdown more severe than anything anyone I know has seen. Wineries are not buying fruit. Thousands of tons will go unsold. This won't translate to cash shortfalls until Dec-Feb. The cause is manifold and prospects for recovery seem 4-5 years out at this point.

  2. No plan to address automation is Trump’s fault. If you cut education, don’t provide retraining for displaced workers that’s lack policy on administration side. Just because automation is coming doesn’t mean we cannot prepare for it and having moron as a president doesn’t help at all.

  3. So much winning!!!!!!!👐 yeah!!!!!! 👐👐👐👐👐👐👐👐👐👐👐👐👐👐👐👐👐👐👐👐👐👐…

  4. Disingenuous title – there are parts of the USA, mostly in the midwest, that never recovered after the 2007 Lesser Depression. I'm okay with pointing out the problem, but don't go using labels that don't apply.

  5. I live in Washington state and I remember before 1995 when it used to snow every single year and our summers didn't even start until the middle of August and barely went until the end of September and we called them an "Indian summer".
    ( I am also 100% Muckleshoot Native American from Washington State and LITERALLY the last of my pure-blood line)

  6. Hey, you believe a known con men whose entire history is fraud, who lost a billion and has no experience nor expertise in anything,
    you get this, coal isn’t coming back, farms got screwed by Trump and so did we w his communism now we pay billions more in taxes to make up for his mistakes. Trump is busy paying off Amazon and EVERY SINGLE BILLIONAIRE CORPORATION which does not help us, we get zero back in taxes, we pay a ton, we are paying for rich men to pollute and enrich themselves even more, Trump is not revolutionary he is a scam artist- he can’t even get a gaming license in Vegas, so he has no casino in his hotel.

  7. 8-10 year debt cycles are a real thing. Its just simple math. Doesn't matter who the president is. Once credit is spread thin people have to pay down debt. Its as reliable as the sun rise. Stop always trying to tie it to this president or that president. Educate yourselves so you dont look so foolish. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHe0bXAIuk0&t=45s

  8. New York city is in a recession. It's impossible to find a decent paying job without a college degree, and in many cases, with a college degree too.

  9. 45000 GM workers go on strike tonight. The company wants to level Amecrican wages to the level in other countries, that are lower. As well as increase the workers portion of health care premiums. This will affect all workers. Not just unions. It's called going global.

  10. It seems that mostly swing states that voted for Trump are impacted by this for now; maybe they will not vote for Trump in the next election

  11. I live in Arkansas and soybean farming (and agriculture in general) is huge here. Due to Trump’s trade war and some other issues in China, namely the outbreak of African Swine Fever among their pig populations, out farmers are being hit really hard. Trump and the GOP view rural people as their base but if things continue as badly as they are and the whole country or world ends up in a recession soon, that could be the nail in the coffin for 2020, 2022, or 2024.

  12. Don’t ignore the climate change related drop in agricultural production. Field crops planted declined drastically this year because of flooding and temperatures that delayed planting by months.

  13. I live in NW Ohio in a small city who’s population went from 60k In the 70s to under 30k as per the 2018 Census. The main jobs left are healthcare and service jobs. The union manufacturing jobs that made the city grow to 60k in the 70s are all but non existent now. Most manufacturing jobs are temp jobs less than $15 with no benefits. The local government and economic development groups sell the idea that because the cost of living relative to surrounding metro areas will attract young people back into the city … Well they’ve been saying that for 10 years but the numbers continue to decline … the writing is on the wall.

  14. Seeing the effects here in the south, company layoff and production slowdowns.The regular 4 panhandlers in the area has increased to about 20. A full blown recession would be a nightmare.

  15. I got fired one time. It was a recession in my house. When “Mama June from Hot to Not” gets cancelled, it will be a recession for the locality where she lives. But people in West Virginia or Sheboygan can migrate to Chicago, Atlanta or NYC to get jobs so it’s ridiculous to think of regional recessions in the US

  16. I really hope this is true. It will cull the herd. I cant wait to buy on the cheap. Many opportunities to pick up cheap real estate and cheap stocks. Let it crash. I'll be waiting on the side licking my chops.

  17. ya blame Trumps hot economy for failed Democrat policies like Chicago, Baltimore, San Francisco, LA and so on. These clowns will say anything for a dollar and a follower. Notice how ABC didn't even ask a question about the economy on the last debate? We did lol

  18. One of my buddies offered me a job in online retailing, buying and selling products. He was making a lot of money quickly buying in bulk, but since Donald Trump escalated the trade war, he can't get the products just cheap enough to make profit on, so he had to stop, and I lost the job offer.

  19. Isn't the point of a tarrif to make you buy the product from a different country — other allies, or US. So you're not supporting the country with the tarrif on them — less likely to do so if the product is more expensive there. It's a tax on the American ppl to entice buying in this country right?

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