MARIA: WELCOME BACK I AM COMING LIVE THIS MORNING FROM MILLIKEN GLOBAL CONFERENCE IN LOS ANGELES, MARKETS ON A RECORD RUN IN RECENT YEARS, COULD WALL STREET BE ON A COLLISION COURSE WITH DISASTER WHAT NEXT GUEST SAYS GUGGENHEIM PARTNER SCOTT.>>GOOD TO SEE YOU –>>DRAMATIC OF YOU YOU THINK ON A BUMPY ROAD SORT OF A SESSION.>>I THINK, I HAVE TO MAKE — EXCITING SO YOU CAN READ IT. BUT I THINK WE ARE, GIVEN FISCAL POLICY HIGHLY STIMULUS NATURE A LIFT NEXT 24 MONTHS.>>PAST FULL EMPLOYMENT WAGES WRITES CORE CP.E. ABOVE 2% FED TARGET NUMBER, SO THE FED IS GOING TO CONTINUE INCREASING RATES, TO FULFILL MANDATE EVENTUALLY, TWO YEARS FROM NOW STIMULUS IS WEARING OFF, THE — GROWTH NUMBERS ARE STARTING TO FLATTEN OUT WE ARE GOING TO FIND OURSELVES WITH RESTRICTIVE MONETARY POLICY ABOUT INEVITABLY THE COLLISION.>>WHAT I ASKED MNUCHIN LAST NIGHT TREASURY SECRETARY TOPICED ABOUT DALLAS FED PRESIDENT KAPLAN SAID BY END OF 2019 THE END OF THE YEAR HE THINKS WE ARE GOING TO SEE GROWTH — 1 3/4% BACK DOWN FROM CLOSE TO 3% HE SAID THERE IS A LOT OF RUNWAY, FOR THE TAX CUT PLAN WE ARE GOING TO CONTINUE TO SEE, THAT IMPACT THE ECONOMY.>>LOOK THE WHOLE THEORY THERE THAT IS AFTER WE GET PAST THE INITIAL STIMULUS OF THE TAX CUTS, AND THE LIFT THAT IT I SUPPOSEDLY GOING TO GIVE TO CONSUMING WE WERE TALKING HASN’T BEEN PROVEN YET, BUT THE — THE REALITY IS THAT THE LONGER TERM IMPACT OF THE TAX CUT WILL ENHANCE PRODUCTIVITY FROM EXPENDING LOWER TAX RATES FOR CORPORATIONS TAKES A LONG TIME TO BUILD UP IN THE SYSTEM, TRADITIONAL THAT SORT OF COMPACT HAS NOT HIT THE ECONOMY UNTIL FIVE YEARS AFTER THE TAX CHANGE, SO I THINK, THE SECRETARY MNUCHIN IS PROBABLY ABOUT CORRECT IN RAISE POTENTIAL OUTPUT FOR THE ECONOMY BUT RAISE POTENTIAL OVER LONG HAUL, AND SHORT RUN I THINK YOU KNOW, PRESIDENT CAP KAPLAN CLOSER TO REALITY A SLOWDOWN AROUND 2020.>>YOU THINK BEGINNING OF A HE RECESSION.>>I THINK SO SO FEDERAL RESERVE IS GOING TO BE FOCUSED ON MANDATE REMEMBER, THEY ARE HERE TO REACH FULL EMPLOYMENT AND TO AASSURE PRICE STALEMATE ALREADY FULFILLED FULL EMPLOYMENT THE PRICE TAKING OFF WAGES TAKING OFF FEELING PRESSURE TO KEEP RAISING RATES NEXT TWO YEARS.>>THIS YEAR HOW ARE YOU INVESTING THIS YEAR GIVEN THE FACT YOU ARE POSITIVE ON BACKDROP THIS YEAR.>>HOW DO YOU ALLOCATE CAPITAL.>>THE DATA SHOWS THAT IN HISTORY, THE TWO YEARS BEFORE A RECESSION IS EXCEPTIONALLY GOOD FOR STOCKS I THINK WE ARE GO GETTING A RECESSION IN 2020 SO THIS YEAR SHOULD BE VERY GOOD FOR STOCKS ESPECIALLY EMERGING MARKETS I THINK THAT THEY ARE GOING TO BENEFIT FROM ALL THE CAPITAL SPENDING GOING ON IN UNITED STATES, SO THAT IS A GREAT PLACE TO BE. AS FAR AS BONDS ARE CONCERNED, WE ARE STAYING AWAY FROM CREDIT RISK, WHEN YOU LOOK AT JUNK BONDS, CORPORATE BONDS, CREDIT SPREADS ARE AT ABOUT HISTORICAL HEIGHT IF YOU ARE HAVING A FIXED INCOME INVESTMENT SHOULD BE HIGH QUALITY.>>YOU SAY RATIONALE INTEGRATION DEPORTATION FOR 21ST CENTURY WHAT DO YOU MEAN BY THAT PRESIDENT CRACKING DOWN ON ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION INTO U.S.>>I DO NOT FAVOR JUST THROWING THE DOORS OPEN AND ALLOWING HE EVERYBODY TO COME INTO THE COUNTRY. MARIA: RIGHT.>>BUT WHEN YOU LOOK AT AN ECONOMY LIKE AUSTRALIA IN 26th YEAR EXPANSION YOU SAY HOW DID ECONOMY AVOID RECESSION BECAUSE AUSTRALIA BUILT A POLICY THAT ALLOWED LABOR TO GROW AT A RATE THAT WAS FAST ENOUGH TO KEEP FROM HAVING OVERHEATING IN WAGES AND PRICES. SO THEY HAVE DEVELOPED A VERY RATIONAL IMMIGRATION POLICY COUNTRY THAT HAVE THE SKILL THEY NEED TO CONTINUE TO BUILD THE ECONOMY. IF YOU LOOK AT THE UNITED STATES, RIGHT NOW, WE ARE RUNNING OUT OF LABOR, IN THE HOUSING SECTOR A CHRONIC SHORTAGE AMONG FRAMEERS DRYWALLERS PAINTERS STARTING TO SEE WAGE PRESSURE IN THAT SECTOR. THESE SORT OF SKILLED WORKERS WE NEED A LOT HAVE TO KEEP THE EXPANSION GOING. AND ONE THING I KEEP REMINDING PEOPLE IS WHEN YOU LOOK AT GENERATION OUT YOU SEE WHERE AMERICA IS RELATIVE TO CHINA AT 2040, 2050 CHINESE ECONOMY WILL BE ROUGHLY THREE TIMES SIZE OF THE UNITED STATES. MARIA: YEP.>>THAT MEANS THEY SPEND 3% ON DEFENSE, WE WILL HAVE TO SPEND 9% ON DEFENSE TO HAVE PARITY WITH THEM ONLY WAY OUT GROW PRODUCTION LABOR IS PROBABLY THE PLACE MOST CHRONICALLY SHORT.>>YOU MAKE A LOT OF IMPORTANT POINTS, THERE IS LABOR ISSUES IS SOMETHING THAT A LOT OF PEOPLE ARE BRINGING UP I THINK MORE AND MORE PEOPLE ARE UNDERSTANDING, THE ISSUES AROUND THIS LACK OF WORKERS WHAT IT WILL MEAN FOR BROADER

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61 thoughts on “Looming US recession in 2020?”

  1. Recession in 2020 if there is no trade war.

    Deep recession in 2018 if there are trade war.

    US against everybody.

  2. I feel like listening to different investors like this everyone has a different theory ! Tomorrow they could have someone on tomorrow saying the opposite. It’s like watching the weather !

  3. Liberals will do everything they can to tank the economy…they cannot allow America to prosper because that would mean Trump is Winning.

  4. Banks workers prepare for layoffs .So do hash harsh tricks for jobs security if this happen. Layoffs star's already about 10%.US,UK,EU and Canada

  5. If Fed's lift Bond's yield to 3,5% .interest on 21 trillion $ debt gone be 400 billions a year. If Fed's lower interest. Stocks market go to 27,000 points.

  6. Puh-leeze. These guys can't accurately predict what will happen next month let alone two years from now. This guy is correct that the Fed will raise rates this year – after almost eight years of protecting Obama with a ''zero rate'' they put themselves in a corner. Rates should have been increased two years ago…

  7. Utter and complete bullshit. The Fed will NOT continue raising rates just because inflation is 2%. We need a good 3% inflation. It's healthy for the economy. This guy wants slave labor. He's sweating like Nixon in this interview. We need much higher labor pay consuming U.S. made goods. NOT Chinese goods.

  8. As long the goverment of the united states have the machine to print dollars supported by the military power, i dont see any recession.

  9. not just recession but financial crisis. at that time i will buy cheap stocks from American retirees.

  10. Republican always drive the economy into depression. History repeats itself! This depression will be the mother of all depression! –HFPII–

  11. Yes we are going to a bigger recssion than ever before bank up right now so u can buy properties when the economy dives down

  12. There will not be a 2020 election — just 20/20 hindsight. Neo Math:
    Borrow $XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX / blow it all up = Peace and Prosperity
    Can you spot their error?

  13. This is man is exactly right about immigration, wish England and America were the same as Australia

  14. 2008 was because of Carter's/Clinton policy. (Democrats) their philosophy, people should have a house whether the can pay for it or Not. Obama took us from 7 trillion in debt to 21 trillion! Democrats believe tax and spend (Really Spend). I can't understand why liberals think we're supposed to be the bank,whipping post for the rest of the world! We were in desperate need of Change! Be thankful we have President Trump. Remember,if you keep doing the same thing over and over,You always get the same results! Trump 2020!

  15. Here is some reality for you pencil pushing economists. We can get out of debt if we become a manufacturing society instead of a consumer society! Economic growth can be sustained if we start building things again and selling them! IT REALLY IS THAT SIMPLE!

  16. PRAYING Jesus Christ, Jesus show yourself mighty to your people, Lord there seems to be no way out, no way to fix things, no ways of solution, but Jesus you are the solution, you are the truth, you are the love and forgiveness, you are the author and finisher of all great things. Jesus if you can raise a nation up and take it down in a day, then Jesus can you not heal our nation and our people.Yes you can,we praise the name of Jesus. Jesus, quickly reveal yourself to us, that is best for each one of us, touch us the only place that you know and can touch, Jesus can you not minister individually to each person, the only way that they can be ministered to,. Jesus are you not greater than any and all calamity and evil, Jesus where a man sees no way out, your spirit testifies that you Jesus, you are the only way out. Jesus you are the author and finisher of all things, great and small. Jesus help us receive your perfect and perfecting love and forgiveness of the cross. Jesus you told me that if we could fully receive and understand the love and forgiveness of the cross, we would be transformed as a new spirit, a useful witness for Christ Jesus. Jesus we pray that you answer this prayer, that we receive THE FULL PORTION,of your perfect love and forgiveness of Jesus Christ.Jesus we praise your perfect love and forgiveness. Jesus we pray for personal and professional revival Lord Jesus not only does it have to happen in our heart, it has to happen in our family and in our workplace,,, Lord bring us to where your people are, there's no greater ministry then in our own families in our own workplace, Jesus show us the way to your fullness. Jesus you said, to pray for the greatest gift to prophesy to strengthen, encourage and comfort our people, to help raise them up. Jesus we repent of godless chatter, a lack of faith. Jesus we need the faith the size of a mustard seed to plant our faith at the altar,Jesus you will grow our faith. Jesus help us be the great communicators of your love and forgiveness, your faithfulness. Jesus Christ we pray that you come quickly, we need you and praise your mighty name, Jesus our Lord and Savior. Jesus come quickly, Jesus we cry out for repentant heart and spirit, seeking the perfect love and forgiveness, found only in Christ Jesus. Jesus is not the simple gospel, can be as simple as, the perfect and perfecting love and forgiveness of Jesus Christ. Jesus is this not available to all people saved and unsaved. Jesus we pray for this great awakening, correction, direction pointing to Christ Jesus, as Lord and Savior. The name of Jesus is above all names, the name of Jesus identifies the God we serve, the God that can save, forgive us of our sins, and love us into eternity now and forever. Jesus cannot the zeal of the Lord accomplish this great revival, harvest this great harvest and free our people, from captivity of the world and the evil one. Jesus not all is lost, but always gained, we hear that this is the greatest time and harvest, that the world will ever see. Jesus, Jesus, quickly come. Jesus we are standing in victory and not in defeat, because the victory was won on the cross let us praise your great name the name above all names, Christ Jesus our Savior and Lord, amen and amen. I AMen

  17. Economies are cyclical, there is still room for growth, but the peak is coming and then all the capital dries up, and people begin cashing out, and pulling back the purse strings.

    Whether that's in a year or 4 years out, is the question but with wages stagnant for the last dozen years, the hit is going decimate the already reeling middle and lower working classes

  18. Well we know he is wrong now, emerging markets currencies are collapsing. Being exacerbated buy the FED having to raise rates to stay ahead of inflation.

  19. 2020? That's Fox's weak attempt to deflect from all the warning signs of a market crash a lot sooner than that. Possibly this year if we see two more interest rate hikes

  20. As soon as the fed raises interest rates,(after midterm) then inflation will start to kick in,then the shit hits the fan,Trump bragging about the economy,when all he's been doing is juicing it,by pumping nearly 2 trillion dollars into it.US heading for Bankruptcy,Trumps favorite pastime

  21. I agree with him on a rational immigration policy. I think he is too optimistic that we will see a recession in 2020 – I think it will be sooner and huge. Our plan is to sell the house we are living in and buy in a high tech area – carefully buy because in that area, high wage earners keep the cost of housing up a bit and more stable – although not entirely stable.
    Also, although Australia has a stable economy they also have extremely high housing costs but that is cracking and the prices of homes there are coming down.

  22. not trade war but trade equalization, benefit to all. stocks will be stocks, like gambling. Stocks (manipulated by banks somewhat) always land on their feet…

  23. American Stores Stop Buying Chinese Imports…NOW
    Slowly and gradually I noticed a lot of Americans are now buying American, growing American and making in America. Some started boycotting Chinese goods. More or less I still agree that in short to medium term this ban on Chinese imports would exert tremendous pressure on the world economy, a new recession will result.
    But in the long run, say 1-4 years from now, the American economy will get more benefit than any of the other economies in the world if we ban Chinese imports today

  24. How all the dumb azz talking about recession in next 2 years with all the situations that administration already knew.
    1. After 2 years of tax cut, make it permanent.
    2. Move the stimulus $1 trillion plan into works: building infrastructures.
    3. Move another 4 to 6 millions more off the welfare back to work (we still have 40 millions in reserve right now after 8 years of Obama!)
    4. Expanding all the new trade deals just gained this and next years into new investment expanding.
    5. Retrain all welfare recipients to get ready to work (or work instead of welfare!)
    6. Expanding all fossil energies projects to get to energy independence ( trillion dollars industries as well)

    those are just a few of my suggestions hope that they already knew this !

  25. You are out of OIL.Islamic world is out Only Iran has.And it was supposed to go through Syria into Europe.But that's not going to happen.And Russia and China are now preparing for full scale clash

  26. Yes. and. all. who. sell. weed. And. are. backed. up. by. Police. Unions. Are. going. to. gobble. up. real. estate. And. put. more. people. on. the. street. And. so. on. and. so. forth. Crime. is. down. But. payroll. for. police. is. up. South. Central. is. Begging. for. some. attention. But. y. should. we. help. When. we. can. put u. in. Jail. and. charge. the. Goverment. If. we. can. put. money. in. schools. Make. them. more. attractive. But. Y. The. Billionaires. have. taken. over. .

  27. Deep recession if they don't re elect the Republicans, Democrats have no format other than Screw up every thing Trump made work!
    I strongly bilevel they will create a recession worse than 2008!

  28. SLAVES….WE NEED MORE SLAVES……quick…. let the poor peasants come in so we can screw…. I mean…. keep wages down to a manageable level. oops…. I almost gave away the traditional Republican agenda.

  29. i would love to see maria get her face punched IN !!!!!!!!!!!!! EVERYTIME SHE OPENS HER GUMS….. BAM …RIGHT IN THE FACE

  30. Greedy employers refuse living wages = low participation .what's the sense of killing ourselves for a job that keeps all the profits. goods are over inflated to the max so people are becoming minimalists less is more. am I wrong ?

  31. This lack of workers notion is pissing me off – its just a cheap trick to get foreign laborers in to our country that will work for less than $15/hr. and keep WAGES DOWN!! Nobody wants to PAY FOR SHIT!!! Low wages, shitty benefits, no raises – ALL CRAP. People would be interested in making a career change to another job if it paid at least a little bit OVER $15/hr. Americans NEED RAISES.

  32. All speculation has been ran out of the market. Invest now at a comfortable rate. If Trump wins in 2020 there will be a streak the likes they have no words to describe it yet. By then you can buy a word.

  33. Do the requisite math. We are in a depression. Properly account for inflation and deficit spending else you'd be making a fake number for the REAL GDP growth rate.

  34. so now their only way out is either gains from intersected tax rates or to decrease inflation doesn't really sound good but whatever eh? why is it that sometimes outsider people that arent even poltians or have anything to do with government certainly have more brains then the standing ones themselves?( and no i dont mean myself..)

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