Is the United States headed for
recession? It doesn’t seem so. Economic growth has ramped up steadily from 1.3
percent per year in the second quarter of 2016 to over 3% at the end of 2018.
And the household sector remains very strong. It’s never grown at a rate slower
than two and a half percent during that period. It’s really difficult to imagine
it turning south real fast. There are some pockets of weakness. The housing sector across the country has shown a market slowdown. Usually a bit of a trouble sign, and global growth is slowing. But the main reason people have been concerned has been bouncing around in the equity markets. Big drops, big swings
up and a really bad finish to 2018. The reality, however, is that in the past 40
years, there have been 29 such downturns and only five recessions. They hardly mean
the end of the world. Is the U.S. headed for recession? I don’t think so,
but it’s always good to pay attention and make sure we have good policies to
keep the growth going.