>>INCREDIBLE. SUZANNE, THANK YOU VERY MUCH. YOU ARE WORKING A VERY LONG DAY.>>I SHOULD GET PAID MORE. THANK YOU, SUSAN. CHIEF ECONOMIST CAN PICK UP ALL OF THIS. IT IS AN INTERESTING DEVELOPMENT THE LAST SEVEN RECESSIONS. OF COURSE WE HAVE THIS PHENOMENON IN THE PAST, BUT NOT ALWAYS FOR A RECESSION. WOULD HE THINK OF THAT?>>IT’S ALWAYS NERVE-RACKING WHEN YOU GET IN THE YIELD CURVE. I DEVELOPED A NEW WAY TO FORECAST RECESSIONS USING THE INVERTED YIELD CURVE AND ALSO ECONOMIC INDICATORS. BOTH OF THEM TELL YOU IN A RECESSION IS COMING. WHAT I’VE DONE IS COMBINE BOTH OF THOSE INDICATORS AS FAR BACK AS THE DATA ONTO YOUR TREASURIES AND 10 YEAR TREASURIES AND I FIND 100% FORECASTING TRACK RECORD IN TERMS OF FORECASTING RECESSION ON AVERAGE ABOUT 11 MONTHS BEFORE RECESSION STARTS. RIGHT NOW THE INDEX OF LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS HAS NOT HAD THREE MONTHLY DECLINE. IT IS GETTING TIGHTER AND RIGHT NOW AS WE SPEAK, AND HAS A 35 ASIS THREAT BUT THE TENURE HOVERING AT 288. IT IS GETTING AWFULLY CLOSE. IF THE KIDS WERE IN THE MINIVAN, WE WOULD SAY WE ARE ON THE DESTINATION BUT WE ARE NOT THERE YET. NEIL: THAT IS A GOOD ANALOGY. PRESUMING 11 MONTHS AWAY GIVEN WE DON’T HAVE BOTH OF THOSE INDICATORS TELLING US A RECESSION IS COMING. AND BY THE WAY, YOU NEED BOTH WITH THE FORECASTING TRACKING RECORD. IN ANY EVENT, WHEN YOU DO GET ON THE YIELD CURVE BY ITSELF WITHOUT LOOKING AT THE OTHER INDICATOR, TECHNICALLY MEANS THE RECESSION COMES ABOUT 18.3 MONTHS INTO THE FUTURE. I’M NOT AS WORRIED, BUT IF YOU WANT TO BE A STICKLER AND LOOK AT THE FUTURES CURVE, IT IS ALREADY PRETTY FLAT SUGGESTING THINGS ARE GETTING A LITTLE BIT TRADITIONAL MEASURE OF THE INVERSION OF THE YIELD CURVE AND THAT HASN’T HAPPENED YET. NEIL: LET TALK ABOUT MORE MEDIA LIKE TRADE WAR ESCALATING WITH THE FINANCIAL MARKETS NOW. TECHNOLOGY, WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF IT? HOW REAL A THREAT IS THIS TO WHAT HAS BEEN A PRETTY GIVING CONCERNING. I DON’T THINK WE ARE AT A CRITICAL JUNCTURE YET. BUT WHEN I HEAR THE CHAIRMAN OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SAYING THERE IS ALREADY SOME ANECDOTAL EVIDENCE THAT IS STARTING TO INFLUENCE CAPITAL EXPENDITURES AND CERTAINLY JOB HIRING, THIS IS STILL THE SOFT DATA WHICH EVERYBODY LIKES TO LOOK AT, THEY’RE REALIZING SOFT DATA IMPACTS THE OVERALL ECONOMY WHICH IS A MUCH LONGER LAG THAN THE HARDER DATA. IF THIS REALLY SPREADS OUT IN SO FAR AS THE FEDERAL RESERVE TELLING US SO FAR SHOWING THAT THERE IS A LITTLE NERVOUSNESS OUT THERE. BUT IF THIS WERE TO SPREAD OUT A LITTLE BIT AND YES, THIS COULD BE SOWING THE SEEDS FOR A POTENTIAL SLOWDOWN IN REAL SERIOUS ISSUES MOVING FORWARD. WE ARE STILL IN THE EARLY OUT THE FACT THAT ARE STILL AWAY FROM EARLY JULY WHEN THE NEXT BATCH OF TERRORISTS WILL BE IMPOSED. WE FORMULATED TRUTH BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. ALL THESE THINGS WE ARE WORRIED ABOUT SOMEWHAT PREMATURE IN

Tagged : # # # # # # # # # # # #

100 thoughts on “Concerns of a potential US recession”

  1. It was always a bad idea to put tariffs on everyone at the same time. Should've focused on china first, which would have given america more time to negotiate something from a position of strength.

  2. Europe is open for business, come over (like Harley) and escape the orange Tradewar…. have 500mio customers without borders and solid Tradeagreements all over the world :)…. also a homicide and crime rate 5 times lower than in the USA. Great Healthcare, healthy food, payed holiday leave, free education, millenia old culture.

  3. TRUMP: YEAH, SO I'LL DECLARE AMERICA BANKRUPT | DAILY WIRE
    www.dailywire.com/news/…/trump-yeah-so-ill-declare-america-bankrupt-james-barret...

    WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF THE US TREASURY GOES BANKRUPT?
    http://thelawdictionary.org/article/what-would-happen-if-the-us-treasury-goes-bankrupt/ If the u.s. treasury went bankrupt, America would experience the LARGEST DEPRESSION IN THE HISTORY OF THE COUNTRY. 1. American's Life Savings Would be Worth Almost Nothing, 2. Taxes Will Increase Dramatically, 3. Lives Will Be in Danger, 4. Government Benefits to Citizens will Disappear, 5. Lower Standard of Living.

    DONALD TRUMP IS THE EPITOME OF THE WASHINGTON ELITE HE CLAIMS TO …
    http://time.com/4377225/donald-trump-washington-elite/
    TRUMP ECONOMICS I'LL DECLARE AMERICA BANKRUPT American's Life Savings Would be Worth Almost Nothing, Taxes Will Increase Dramatically, Government Benefits to Citizens will Disappear,

    DONALD TRUMP: MY FATHER GAVE ME 'A SMALL LOAN' OF $1 MILLION TO …
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TXEOFHf1q9A TRUMP'S EX-ACCOUNTANT: I DID ALL HIS TAXES, TRUMP NO "GENIUS" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-wH-50peybg

    EPIC VIDEO: TRUMP SLAMS AMERICANS WHO DON'T PAY TAXES
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4wsQ7E9NIgc
    TRUMP NOT PAYING TAXES: 'MAKES ME SMART'
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EGiqQt6ACFQ

    FINANCE PROFESSOR: 'THERE IS GOOD REASON FEW ECONOMISTS HAVE …
    http://rebrn.com/re/finance-professor-there-is-good-reason-few-economists-have-endor-2928373/
    He's never said a single f**king thing that made any damn sense. How the hell he has the support he does, just bewilders me. He's a total fraud and huckster and people that would vote for him are completely clueless. It's truly frightening that he has even the slightest chance of becoming our President

    WHY TRUMP ISN'T SCARING THE STOCK MARKET – JUL. 13, 2016 – CNN MONEY
    http://money.cnn.com/2016/07/13/investing/donald-trump-stock-market/ Donald Trump has been a complete shock to Wall Street. He's not "their guy," many of his policies make CEOs cringe, and Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein has even gone on record to say: Trump's "finger on the button blows my mind." If Trump wins the White House, numerous business and economic leaders predict the STOCK MARKET AND ECONOMY WILL TANK.

    IT REALLY IS INSANE THAT TRUMP GOT AWAY WITH NOT RELEASING HIS TAX RETURNS.
    www.slate.com/…/it_really_is_insane_that_trump_got_away_with_not_releasing_his_..
    .HERE ARE ALL THE INSANE THINGS YOU'VE PROBABLY FORGOTTEN ABOUT … https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/…/here_are_all_the_insane_things_youve_probably/

    REPUBLICAN SUPPLY-SIDE ECONOMIC POLICY FAILS YET AGAIN http://americannewsx.com/finance/republican-economic-policy/
    DONALD TRUMP: LET GOLF STAY FOR THE RICH ELITES – FORTUNE http://fortune.com/2015/07/01/donald-trump-golf-rich-elite/

  4. The Supreme Courts Internet Tax ruling was a stealth tax increase of some significance. And sadly the media ignores it as a cause of this stock pullback.

  5. chan? is it a nigro or a chinaman. Oh, I'm sure it would like to see a recession but in the words of old man goerge bush…………………"nah gonna happen"

  6. It's ok folks it's self-correcting… we've been getting killed in the world trade market because politicians sold us out…sometimes a little pain only makes you stronger….. suck it up buttercups

  7. Our value system is based on fake shit. Music, movies, none of that is actual feasible value. Yet 90% of it pools there. We started charging ridiculous amounts for that shit, and started paying our teachers, plumbers, roofers, janitors like shit. People who actually matter. So naturally, the system is failing. Actors don't deserve to make so much, CEOs, office workers, name tags n' shit, deserve very modest pays compared to what they're currently getting. Lawyers, doctors, the gap is too large. The rich doesn't deserve what they can make. They deserve what they're worth. Nothing more, and until society realizes that we need to allocate resources to our must feasible impactful people, the middle class will keep evaporating. And our economies will choke, globally.

  8. you can't use historical numbers or charts to forecast anything during the day and age of Trump. He is not a president you can predict.

  9. Why is it ok for other countries to take advantage of America in trade negotiations but when all we want is a fare square we turn into the bad guy? Is it because everyone else just expects us to get fucked on every deal we make? Those days are over.

  10. I'm in Mexico. This will hit us stronger. But all this is worth it to see you fall. Goodbye TRUMP. JAJAJA

  11. DEAR EVERYONE OF EVERY LABEL, UNITED WE STAND DEVIDED WE FALL. STOP HATING YOUR NEIGHBORS BECAUSE OF WHAT THE NEWS TOLD YOU ABOUT THEM.

  12. What happens if we hit a recession amidst a trade war with, as it stands right now, damn near the whole world?

  13. I think we have been in a recession for 6+ years, food have gone up 600%, also everything I buy has gone up to a point we have to cut back on buying anything, however government keeps spending more and more and raising our taxes to where we can no longer afford them.

  14. I have one advice. Buy on the dips!!!! Mr Trump is a stable genius and can correct any problem with a tweet. Don’t you get it yet? It’s a free for all baby. Let’s go Republicans!!!!! Who cares???? I don’t!!!!!

  15. I cant believe how you are shilling on Donald. What is this CNN? LMAO, you people just don't get the overall picture that POTUS has on mind.

  16. Bill maher should be happy now. His wish is coming true; however, America will vote for DJT. Easy decision since MW is now the face of the Democratic party.

  17. Screw a Recession…we're not gonna starve and a lot less should humble Americans and bring them closer together.I have 2 liberal ears and a liberal nose for a whole night of drinking…if any bars choose to accept payment in liberal body parts! ♥️🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸😁😂♣️

  18. Oh just come out and say it. There’s a possibility of a chance of a possible resession that might possibly happen by chance possibly. . .

  19. Trump is President, no one else. Opinions are like a$$holes.eveyone has one. He knows how to do his job. Stick with what you do.

  20. Alternative facts. With all other attempts to remove Trump failing. Would not be surprising to see the fed tank the market. To blame Trump for economy crashing.

  21. 6 of Trumps companies went bankrupt. Trump has been riding high because Obama left him a solid economy that only took Trump less than 2 years to destroy.

  22. Hawaii is losing money in tourists cause of volcano and homes homeless and land will get worse as lava not stopping. we still have hurricane Season and gulf water too warm not good for hurricane Season.

  23. Stocks don't mean recession. Job markets are good, pay is rising… the only factors that cause a recession is over spending on your budget.

    There has to be a lot of signs of defaulting loans and credit cards. The economic recession from bush to obama was caused by the banks themselves.

    The banks should not have been bailed out. At which point the debts would of been cleared and people in bankruptcy/foreclosure would of kept their homes due to banks inability to maintain the properties. The recession had nothing to do with bush. People had no home therefore were not buying household goods. This saving to rebuild process took quite a long time.

    Trade war ideology as cause for downfall is highly flawed. Business demands are high, tax cuts save millions on businesses profits. (reminder: tariffs on materials is a fraction of total cost and selling price for bottom line, base price includes labor, materials, and energy used, selling price is at least double base price)

    Here is something to think about
    Harley davidson has its excuse as tariffs as reason to leave. As we know, they previously laid off due to falling sales. tariffs excuse is ridiculous being that 20,000 bike tax cut of 14% is significant. A 700lb bike even at a price of $3 per pound of steel is only $2100. Say the bike takes 36 hours to build $40hr wage is $1440. Motor say is 6000, that is $10,000 total. $3000 in other materials and energy used, selling price $20,000. $7000 profit= old tax rate 35% = 2450 taxes new tax rate $1470. nearly $1000 in savings. so in ridiculous scenario they lost only $1000 with like 6 times the tariff tax rate. reality increase though were only at $1 which steel at $1 using 700lb bike is actually $700. Tax cut saved them 1000, meaning they made 300 more even with tariffs thanks to tax cut.

    Keep in mind this is way extreme cost scenario. 40Hr wage? 36hours to build? $6000 engine?.

    Also a reminder Trump did request FAIR TRADE.

  24. Just Bullshit from the “experts”… fuck them all! They say after things happens,”I told you” but they NEVER see it coming.

  25. What recession? Our GDP almost 5 %. These people just like chicken that always cry the sky is falling.

  26. They were showing social media networks and amazon down a little..well does anyone think since unemployment rates are at an all time low then that means there's more people are actually working and not sitting around playing on the web..?? I only get a few minutes a day to check out the news and emails so if you multiple that by 50 million other workers like me then you going to see a drop of usage on the net. Just an example.

  27. We are only to blame for this. We the American people lack economic education and as a result our economic prosperity will soon shorten and our government will keep growing.

  28. Fox news now tryna save Thier ass for supporting Trump's idoit tariffs that will eventually destory America. Byebye America, hello China and Russia.

  29. The tariffs plus a flood of money coming in at the top. I can tell you, that rich money is salivating at buying up ownership of profitable enterprises when a recession forces them into false non-profitability …

    Nothing like holding a portfolio as the middle class thinks about spending their raises buying over-valued stocks, and then watching the Government's need to sell treasuries starts ramping up … And then having cash as the middle class is forced into a recession.

  30. Am I watching real or Fake news!?
    Cavuto is one the rare host in Fox who really knows what he is talking about and trying to keep his facts straight and objective but dude, you are making a lot of Fox supporters happy with those covers.

  31. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2017/03/14/hey-it-turns-out-donald-trump-didnt-avoid-income-taxes-for-18-years-after-all/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.3453dc13ad95

  32. Trump’s Achilles heel is a major downturn in economy. Newly jobless Trump supporters will be shocked at the decline in benefits that have been cut by the Republicans…you wanted small government, you got it.

  33. Yep and when it happens trumptards and Republicans will blame Hillary or Obama ! Your party should be put in a very large padded room !!

  34. Yup just like what larry kudlow said 2006-2008 their is no signs of recession on FOX News. What happen on 2008 economy? These fox news

  35. I Think that this was a very good explanation of the current economical situation, real facts but no fearmongering.

  36. Tax cuts encourage consumer spending, tariffs increase the prices on the shelves. This causes inflation which lead to a tightening of policy by the Federal Reserve, this slows down the economy. Its not rocket science. But all Trump seems to care about is reducing the trade deficit, a recession would do that but at a cost to the average American.

  37. Of course a recession is on the way. That's what happens when you hire an incompetent fuckup like trump for president. Trumptards truly are morons.

  38. What does it mean when the FED stops sharing how much it has in securities purchased with printed money?
    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WSHOL

  39. I forecast this recession coming is being fed by Trump policies and when does I hope Fox loses its ass. You deserve every painful loss due to you supporting Trumps destruction of our economy.

  40. Can anybody give me an idea of what they think is going to happen in the future about the economy I hear stories about a collapse it's good what does everybody think let me know thank you

  41. Stop! There definitely going to be a recession, by 2020. The economy will show signs of slow down this year by third quarter.

  42. Lastly, the stock market is not a good economy indicator. Tomorrow the president could say I don't like eggs , and I promise you the market will dip.

  43. The President is practicing “Supply Side Economics” and as you tell by the haters on here they zero clue about economics.
    JFK, Reagan, Clinton & now Trump are proving that it works every time it’s tried. It bothers me that Business FoxNews doesn’t listen to Larry Kudlow. The key is to grow the economy though incentives. The last 8-12 years, the businesses have had disincentives. The war on business is finally over. How can you have rising wages when you attack businesses through over regulations and high taxes? Good paying jobs on come from businesses that are doing good.

  44. I love the blame trump comments, morons…. it has nothing to do with whoever is president, we have had ups and downs in the economy since the creation of the federal reserve. Our currency is what is failing, because some dipshit abolished the gold standard and now the dollar is printed and loaned at interest from its creation, we gave a private bank the all the power to print and loan our currency to our own government. The only outcome is higher and higher inflation and loss of value and continuously accruing dept, dept to the bankster cartels. The federal reserve is no more “federal” than federal express, but yeah blame trump, that makes sense, how about we abolish the fed and go back to the gold standard. That makes more sense than printing endless sums of money with almost no value attached to it.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *