AS WELL –>>CAME OUT THIS YEAR.>>ABSOLUTELY, TOP STORY WE HAVE EXTREMELY, EXTREMELY SMART LADY COMING UP DELL FUTURES UP AS INVESTORS WAIT TO SEE IF FED DECIDES TO RAISE INTEREST RATES BEFOR INTEREST RATES FOFOR INTEREST RATES FOURR INTEREST RATES FOURTH GAME.>>EP STEPHANIE POMBOY I SAID WHEN YOU SIT DOWN TAKE CREDIT FOR WHAT YOU CALLED EVERYBODY IS TALKING ABOUT WHAT YOU WERE SITTING OBJECT SET TALKING ABOUT, IN JANUARY.>>WELL I REALLY APPRECIATE YOU ACKNOWLEDGING THAT, I WASN’T VERY POPULAR LADY, DIDN’T GET A LOT OF COCKTAIL PARTY INVITATION WITH OUTH FOR THE ECONOMY, BUT AS YOU AND I TALKED A LOT ABOUT, DAGEN, MY WHOLE ARGUMENT HAS BEEN IN FOCUS ON THE IMPACT OF THE TAX CUTS FISCAL POLICY ON ECONOMY BEHIND-THE-SCENES.>>QUANTITATIVE EASING THAT WAS PROGRESS ON A REGULAR SCHEDULE I THINK I TOLD YOU MY ANALOGY FOR SORT OF BEING TOLD YOU ARE GOING TO GET PUNCHED IN THE FACE EVERY MONTH AS IF THAT MADE IT LESS PAINFUL WHEN YOU ACTUALLY DID GET PUNCHED IN THE FACE, BUT BECAUSE THE TIGHTENING WAS KIND OF HEAPING ON AUTO PILOT IT WASN’T FRONT AND CENTER I THINK THE MARKETS SORT OF JUST ASSUMED THAT IT WAS FROM INO WAS FROM INNOCUOUS PROGRAM THE U.S. ECONOMY HAS BEEN RECEDING IN CORPORATE BOND MARKET HAS NOT JUST SLOWED LAST FEW WEEKS HAS BEEN SLOWING ALL YEAR. ITS VOLUME, IF PRICE THINGS BUBBLE TO THE FORE AS THEY HAVE NOW I AM NOT SURPRISED THERE IS TALK ABOUT HOW THE FED MIGHT ACTUALLY PAUSE, NEXT YEAR, I THINK THE REAL SURPRISE NEXT YEAR WILL BE, NOT ONLY DO IS THEY PAUSE RATE HIKES BUT QUALITATIVE TIGHTENING BY THE TIME THEY PAUSE RATE TICKS TIMESPAN BETWEEN WHEN THEY STOP TIGHTENING FIRST CUT SIX MONTHS IF THIS IS LAST TODAY COULD EASY BY CENTER NO POINT CURTAINING LATEST IF SIMULTANEOUSLY SHRINKING THE BALANCE SHEET, I WOULD ARGUE MAYBE HAS EVEN MORE PROFOUND IMPACT ON CREMECHANISM.>>A DO YOU THINK THAT WE ARE LOOKING BECAUSE YOU HAVE BEEN PREDICTING THE TURBULENCE IN THE STOCK MARKET THAT WE HAVE SEEN IN THE LAST COUPLE MONTHS BECAUSE OF ALL OF THE THINGS YOU JUST MENTIONED SEEING FOR MONTHS AND MONTHS AND MONTHS, GOING INTO NEXT YEAR, DO YOU THINK THAT ONE IS IT POSSIBLE THAT FED DOES NOT RAISE TODAY.>>NUMBER ONE, NUMBER TWO, ARE YOU SEEING RECESSION?>>SO ON THE FIRST ONE, I MEAN THERE IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY I THINK THE POSSIBILITY WOULD HAVE BEEN MUCH HIGHER HAD THE MARKET DONE ANOTHER 600 POINT DOWN DAY YESTERDAY. BUT YOU KNOW, YESTERDAY TRADING THE FUTURES TODAY YOU KNOW, MADE THAT PROBABLY PRETTY LOW HE ORDER PRETTY LOW HE ODDER PRETTY LOW HE ODDSR PRETTY LOW HE ODDS I THINK EXPECTATION 70% BASICALLY AS TO WHETHER A RECESSION I HAVE ALWAYS MAINTAINED THAT PRECIPITATING FACTOR FOR A RECESSION WOULD BE A CORRECTION IN THE FINANCIAL MARKETS DAGEN: ABSOLUTELY YOU HAVE BEEN SAYING THAT, I MENTIONED IT A MINUTE AGO, BUT RUSSELL 2000 SMALL-CAP STOCKS VERY U.S. FOCUSED IN A BEAR MARKET.>>THE STORY IS THAT HAS BEEN HAPPENING BEHIND SCENES KNOWN FOCUSED ON TALK ABOUT BEING A NERD, I WILL ONE-UP YOU IN NERDOM.>>WE FOCUS ON THE S&P, EARNINGS NUMBERS, AND YOU KNOW THAT IS WHERE THEY LOOK AT P.E. RATIO ON MARKETS JUDGE VALUATION THE GOVERNMENT, THIS IS REALLY NERDY REALM COMES UP WITH THEIR OWN PROFIT MEASURE PART OF THEIR QUARTERLY GDP REPORT, THEIR PROFIT MEASURE COVERS THE WAY INTO ECONOMY NOT JUST TOP 500 COMPANIES THAT WE FOCUS ON, MYOPICALLY, THEIR MEASURE OF PROFITS HAS BEEN MUCH SLOWER, THAN THE S&P NUMBERS, WHICH ARE IN FACT, BEFORE TAX EARNINGS NUMBERS WHICH IS AN INDICATION OF WHAT WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE WHEN TAX CUT EFFECT ROLLS OFF NEXT YEAR I AM NEGATIVE YEAR-ON-YEAR THEY’VE PROFITS DOWN 1% BEFORE TAX — SO THAT IS COMPLETELY OUT OF THE REALM OF ANYTHING YOU KNOW PEOPLE ARE SEEING ON WALL STREET, BUT MY POINT IS EVEN IF WE ARES SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN YOU GOT 25%, ON THE S&P, EARNINGS, AND SEVEN, YOU KNOW FROM THE GOVERNMENT, IF SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE THIS YEAR, I THINK PEOPLE ARE GOING TO BE SURPRISED, AND I GUESS WHAT I AM GETTING TO ON YOUR SMALL CAP POINT, IS THAT WE’VE BEEN FOCUSED ON THE VERY NARROW THE — PICTURE WE’VE SEEN SEEING IS TOP PART OF THE PYRAMID, MEANWHILE, MUCH BROADER SWATH OF THE ECONOMY HAS NOT SEEN THE TYPE OF BENEFITS FROM THE TAX CUT AND MOMENT REFLECTED IN THE TOP STUFF EVEN IN S&P 500, TOP 20% OF COMPANIES, ACCOUNTED FOR 70% OF THE EARNINGS GROWTH LAST QUARTER. THE BOTTOM HALF OF COMPANIES, FOR 9% BIGGEST 50 FOR 9% BIGGEST 5 HU FOR 9% BIGGEST 5 COMPANIES IN THE COUNTRY IF A BROADER PICTURE THINGS REALLY ARE NOT QUITE AS FABULOUS, ON AN AVERAGE BASIS.>>STEPHANIE, SO IT SOUNDS LIKE IF YOU EXPECT RECESSION NEXT YEAR DO YOU THINK THAT IS HIGHLY LIKELY IT IT’S GOING TO BEING BEING ABOUT ABOUT PROFITABLE COMPANIES ACCOUNTING FOR A 70% THAT ARE GOING TO HAVE BOTTOM FALL OUT 70% INTERESTING LEVEL, PERSONAL CULMINATION MAKES UP GDP YOU ROUGHLY GIVE OR TAKE A COUPLE POINTS THIS IS WHERE WE MIGHT SEE LIKE THE — TO CONSENSUS IN PERSONAL CONSUMPTION IS THAT WHERE FLOOR IS GOING TO FALL OUT IS THAT A BIG PART WHAT YOU ARE SEEING.>>IVE THAT PERSONAL CONSUMPTION, HAS BEEN SLOWING, I KNOW THAT THE NUMBERS YOU KNOW YOU GET THESE QUARTERS WHERE IT IS STRONGER, WEAKER OBVIOUSLY NOTHING GOES IN A STRAIGHT LINE. BUT IF YOU LOOK AT THE DISCRETIONARY PORTION OF SPENDING, YOU KNOW PEOPLE HAVE REALLY HAD TO ADJUST THEI CONSUMPTION DEBT SERVICE IS GOING UP SINCE DECEMBER 2015 CORPORATE SECTOR ENJOYED LOWER BORROWING COMFORTS THAT DIDN’T HELP FOR CONSUMER SECRETARY OF STATE THAT STATEMENT ORS SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THAT THREE YEAR STRETCH, SO THEY’VE HAD TO CUT BACK ON DISCRETIONARY SPENDING I MEAN YOU HAVE SEEN IT IN — THINGS LIKE, INTRASENSITIVE AREAS, HOUSING VOLUME DOWN 5% PRICES DOWN 6%, SALES SLOWING –>>HOUSING AND AUTO SALES WARRIOR SEEMS SLOWDOWN IN INFURIATED I AM CURIOUS HOW BAD YOU THINK COULD IT GET BECAUSE ALAN GREENSPAN DID AN INTERVIEW WITH CNN SAID GOING TO GET UGLY ALSO HEARING PEOPLE TALK ABOUT STAGFLATION RIGHT NOW A STAGNATEING ECONOMY AMID INFLATION, OIL –>>THERE IS NO INFLATIONARY PRESSURE AT ALL INDICATIONS CONSUMER –>>I KNOW NOT LOOKING AT NUMBERS.>>I THINK WORRYING ABOUT INFLATION IS A GIANT WAIST OF TIME. IN AND ECONOMY THAT IS AS LEVERED THE TENDENCIES FLAIGS NOT INFLATION THE PROBLEM WE HAVE SEEN PEAK IN THE CYCLE I THINK WE HAVE WE HAVE SEEN PEAK INCREDIBLY LOW RATES OF INFLATION INCREDIBLY LOW RATES — RELATIVELY SPEAKING, SO I DON’T REALLY WORRY ABOUT STAGFLATION. AND I ALSO THINK CONCERNED ABOUT CONSUMER SECTOR IN TERMS OF SLOWING AND TROUBLE SERVICING DEBT AT LOW END I THINK THE REAL ISSUE IS IN THE CORPORATE SECTOR WHERE LEVERAGING UP HAS BEEN UNPRECEDENTED, AND THEY’VE GOT, 800 BILLION IN THAT DEBT THAT ROLLS NEXT YEAR IN A MARKET THAT IS SEIZING UP ALREADY THAT IS GOING TO BE A SOURCE OF LOTS OF ENTERTAINMENT NEXT YEAR. DAGEN: COME BACK AFTER — COME BACK, SOON.>>OKAY.

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20 thoughts on “A market correction would precipitate a recession: Economic expert Stephanie Pomboy”

  1. I am so tired of worrying about the health of the market. No one worries about the health of workers or their security. I am looking for a yellow vest.

    Last crash didn't lift the workers out of debt did it? But it made the banks free from any liability. Extremely tired of that sort of one sided concern. We lost our jobs, life savings and homes, the banks lost nothing, and learned nothing. They just grew unreasonably large without actually producing services or products. They have no regulation or oversight. But the little guy has every moment of his life legislated. Time things and priorities changed. Wall St. and the Markets actually mean nothing to ordinary people.

  2. Either we go the way of the Weimar Republic or we honestly default on the debt & restructure. Both are painful but the latter is less so.

  3. This is what an advanced degree in economics produces, a market correction will cause a recession?? 😑😑😑😑😑😑

  4. I really don't give a crap what the establishment thanks my IQ is but I dam sure figured out what they're doing and how they think look,  They want us American people  Docile and  compliant so they put fluoride in our water. They put our us  in debt with credit cards and school loans and doctors bill , to keep us busy working our a** off to pay for there forces  Fortunes .  so we don't have time to sit down and think about what  Government and elite that run them are  really doing,  They crush the housing market so people have to work twice as hard to keep a roof over their heads,  But what is their true goal.  I know , God gave it to me one thing and a time now I'm giving it all to you .  Look GMO foods ,fluoride water, chemtrails,  vaccine , war,  you cant afford children so you abortion your babys , drugs , alcohol,  cigs , famines , economic warfare , mind control warfare,  BPA plastic,  3g4g5g radio microwaves radiation,  wake up sheeple etc. look up stingray , New World Order, .   Elite have  all you people in the world by the balls. They   Make you think  There aint no God, When in fact God put us here and  made us in his image , that's why when we die,  we don't die spiritually,  just the flesh. God is comeing soon and he  bring in his son Jesus Christ and hes bringin h*** and heaven with him.  There's only 2 teams good and evil which one are you on. Don't be the chaff and get thrown into the fiery pits and burn for ever. Because God is separating the wheat from the chaff and the chaff will be burned up AND  thrown into the fire. God help us dumb down people.

  5. Powell will raise rates to say: 'Up yours!' to P. Trump regardless of anything. The Board has no humility and no real concern about Wall Street or the economy. It's all about FACE now and Powell doesn't want to LOSE his!

  6. She says there's no inflation, has she been in a grocery store lately, And had to pay for your groceries with your own earned money not with a EBT card.

  7. What none of these fools tell you is that all of this is due to the privately owned Federal Reserve deciding for all of us that we are doing too well.

  8. Does anyone else feel like the world is going to hell soon? It’s like knowing a massive storm is on the way and there’s nothing that can be done about it. Get out the market pay off your debts and build an emergency fund.

  9. When this cycle ends the people with the most debt, car notes especially and mortgages when those people right now are living paycheck to paycheck lose their job for even one week and boom there goes the house and the car. It will be worse for those who recently got a car note in the past 1-2 years because when the shit hits the fan those cars are going bye bye. Let’s hope this doesn’t happen to any of you here because the numbers point to a 10 percent defaulting on car notes right now this year and the past two years so far and that number will go up in the downturn in 1.5 to 2 years from now. Also while I’m saving money now and hardly spending it while everyone else is borrowing and taking out credit cards and car notes etc… When those new cars become hard to sell at dealerships and they give great discounts I’ll get a great deal on my next vehicle and I’ll find plenty of houses that are priced low to sell when nobody else will have the ability to buy I will. This is what I’m waiting for. So yes you out there continue to spend and be like the Jones’s to see who has the nicer cars and houses and fall into the debt trap while you are economically depressed I’ll be flourishing with the money that I worked hard for all these years and saved to find bargains and buy my dream car for cheap.

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